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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd